Vaughan Gething‘s resignation as First Minister in Wales, just a week after first past the post gave Keir Starmer’s Labour Party to a large parliamentary majority, comes as little surprise. Vaughan’s position was already weak in the Senedd. Although the ongoing criticism of his accepting a £200k donation created a lot of noise, it was the General election results in Wales which sealed his fate.
Vaughan only narrowly won the Welsh Labour leadership election, most likely on union member votes, and he didn’t have the support of a majority of Assembly Members or a majority of non-union party members, particularly outside of Cardiff. Concerns about the likely results of the next Senedd election in 2026 were already being raised before the General Election. Although Labour managed to pick up seats in the election, the underlying voting patterns crystalised those concerns.
Turnout at the General election was down 10% in Wales, and many of those voters who stayed at home appeared to be Labour voters, especially if you strip out constituencies where voters were motivated to remove the Conservative incumbent. Plaid and Reform shares of the vote outperformed expectations. If Labour voters stayed away in a General Election where there was a real motivation to oust a deeply unpopular Conservative government, then the omens for the 2026 Senedd elections for Labour don’t look good.
Talking to voters in Wales gives the impression that Labour’s enthusiasm is low. Whether true or not, on an individual basis, people struggle to identify anything they see as having improved. While blaming a Conservative government in Westminster may have held some currency, that excuse now disappears. A lack of focus on the economy is often mentioned, along with apathy that politics makes any difference. The refrain from Reform voters is remarkably consistent – “they’re all the same”, referring to Labour and the Conservatives. Simply dismissing Reform voters’ concerns is likely to further backfire for Labour, in the same way Hilary Clinton made the huge mistake of calling Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables”. I have spoken to many people who, while they may not agree with everything Nigel Farage says, perceive him as someone who at least answers the questions put at him.
Reform will likely throw everything at the next Senedd elections, and the Conservatives will almost certainly outperform the General election results. A Reform/Conservative coalition, along with a few independents, is not a totally unrealistic prospect. Labour now faces a real risk of not even being the largest party in the Senedd, something many people would have once thought unthinkable.
The Labour Party’s options in Wales to turn it around are also limited. They don’t have a majority in the Senedd, and Plaid may not be in the mood to offer much cooperation. Working closely with the Labour government in Westminster is their best hope, but will Keir Starmer want to prioritise Wales? Labour’s national priority in 2026 may be the Scottish Government elections and building a more solid support base in England.
None of this is particularly good for Wales in the short term. Regardless of which party is in power, we need a clear Welsh Government agenda prioritising economic growth. Too many opportunities have been missed.
Labour will have to move perceptions away from a Student Union approach to politics in Wales. Trying to ban politicians in the Senedd from lying may seem admirable, but it smacks of politicians’ navel gazing and just marks a failure of politics. Politics is won on the arguments.
A week may be a long time in Politics, but for the Labour Party in Wales, the 650 odd days until the next Senedd election will disappear all too quickly, giving the Welsh Government little time to come up with a clear agenda that voters can be enthusiastic about.
*This article has been written by our Chief Executive and does not necessarily represent the views of the firm.